A new report by the Small Arms Survey (SAS) has revealed a complex picture of arms availability in Afghanistan three years after the Taliban takeover. While the Taliban have made strides in consolidating control over weapons stockpiles and restricting civilian access, a persistent, albeit slower, illicit arms trade continues, fueling concerns about regional instability.

The SAS report, based on two years of field investigations in Afghanistan and Pakistan, documents the availability and prices of various weapons in informal markets. The study found that while the Taliban have implemented licensing procedures and conducted seizures, informal markets remain active, often with the tacit approval of low-level Taliban officials. This suggests that efforts to control the flow of weapons are inconsistent across the country.

According to the report, the overall availability of weapons in informal markets has remained relatively stable since the Taliban takeover. However, prices for some weapons, particularly US-made M4 and M16 rifles, have increased significantly, suggesting potential supply constraints or increased demand. NATO-pattern weapons, such as M4s and M16s, are consistently more expensive than Soviet-pattern weapons, reflecting their relative scarcity and perceived value.

Meanwhile, a “slow drip” of cross-border arms trafficking continues between Afghanistan and Pakistan, with both newer NATO and older Soviet-pattern weapons readily available in some border regions. The report highlights continued concerns about the supply of weapons to designated terrorist groups, including the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and al-Qaeda.

The report underscores the influence of internal power struggles within the Taliban on arms control efforts. Competition between different factions impacts the effectiveness of regulations and contributes to the persistence of illicit markets. It also noted the historical link between drug and arms trafficking in Afghanistan. While the Taliban have officially banned poppy cultivation, some factions remain involved in the drug trade, potentially using the proceeds to finance arms acquisitions on international markets.

The SAS researchers tracked weapon prices in informal markets to understand overall availability and flow. However, the report acknowledges limitations, particularly in assessing the extent of deliberate weapon provision to terrorist groups.

While NATO and Soviet weapons continue to be sold in Pakistan as well, the report notes that sellers are reluctant to openly display these weapons out of fear of government action including arrests and seizures.

The report concludes that arms proliferation in Afghanistan is deeply intertwined with local conflicts, power dynamics, and ethnic tensions. The researchers warn that escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan, fueled by cross-border attacks by the TTP, could destabilize the current equilibrium and lead to a surge in illicit arms flows.