by Qurat-ul-Ain Sajjad Abbasi

Ever since it came into being in 1947, Pakistan has been caught in long-standing and intricate battles with India, and tensions between the two have escalated over the contentious region of Kashmir. The issue has produced multiple wars, border skirmishes, and diplomatic crises between the two nations, with the situation being precarious up until today. The conflict bears crucial implications on regional security, including the potential of nuclear war and the possibility of terrorism.

History of the Conflict

The conflict between India and Pakistan has a convoluted and lengthy past. The two countries had been edging toward a confrontation until an incident at a border sparked an all-out war in 1965. A second short but fierce battle erupted in 1971 for East Pakistan, which eventually declared independence with Indian support and is now Bangladesh. To better their relations, India and Pakistan signed the Shimla Agreement in 1972 and drew the Line of Control (LOC), demarcating Kashmir into two administrative divisions.

Yet the nature of this conflict drastically changed in 1974, when India conducted its first nuclear test, which prompted a nuclear weapons race with Pakistan. The advance escalated the risks of any likely conflict, rendering it more volatile. The advent of nuclear weapons also raised fears regarding the threat of nuclear proliferation in the region. The situation is tense, with both countries in a state of high military alertness and competing in a nuclear arms race.

Pahalgam Attack

The Pahalgam attack was a catastrophic terrorist attack on April 22, 2025, in the Baisaran Valley of Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. The attack claimed the lives of 28 individuals, including 25 tourists, and one local Muslim pony operator, while 20 others were injured. The attackers, using M4 carbines and AK-47s, targeted Hindu tourists, questioning them about their names and religion. Some were even requested to recite the Islamic Kalma to determine if they were Muslims.

Pakistan was then held responsible for the attacks, and The Resistance Front claimed responsibility. The attack precipitated widespread criticism and heightened tensions between India and Pakistan. India suspended the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan on April 23 on grounds of national security and allegations of supporting state-sponsored terrorism.

The decision carries great meaning for the region as the treaty has been important to the two countries in sharing their water resources since 1960. The Indus Waters Treaty divided the Indus River’s waters and the tributary rivers among India and Pakistan. India owns the waters of the three “Eastern Rivers” (Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej) while Pakistan owns the waters of the three “Western Rivers” (Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum).

Pakistan threatened that if any Indian attempt to divert or block the water supply was made, it would be treated as an act of war. On May 7, India carried out missile strikes against Pakistan, which announced the operation as “Operation Sindoor.” India asserted to have struck at terrorist infrastructure in nine locations within Pakistan’s densely populated Punjab province and Kashmir.

At least 26 people were killed and 46 injured in the strikes, which included the killing of a woman and a three-year-old child, reports said. Pakistan Prime Minister has labeled the strikes “an act of war” and Islamabad threatened retaliation.

The Indian Air Force lost one of its Rafale fighter jets to Pakistani forces, according to a high-ranking French intelligence officer as quoted by CNN. This is the first combat loss of the cutting-edge French-built aircraft.

Escalating Regional Conflict: Humanitarian, Political, and Nuclear Implications

Apart from the regional implications, the conflict has attracted international attention, with world powers and bodies such as the UN urging restraint and proposing mediation to avert further escalation. The humanitarian effect has been drastic, with civilians on both sides—particularly in Kashmir—suffering displacement, casualties, and psychological trauma. The crisis has also been driven by sensationalism and disinformation in the media that have fueled public indignation and entrenched suspicion. Economically, the hostilities have caused disruption of trade, unsettled investor confidence, and threatened key infrastructure in both countries. Politically, both governments are under severe domestic stress, with leaders taking nationalist positions to centralize power and deflect attention from domestic issues. In addition, the existence of nuclear weapons introduces a perilous dynamic into the confrontation; India’s avowed “No First Use” policy is juxtaposed against Pakistan’s less clear-cut doctrine, heightening uncertainty regarding the manner in which a nuclear conflict could develop. All this renders more pressing than ever the necessity for openness, consistent diplomacy, and crisis management mechanisms.

The conflict could have spiraled into an all-out war, with catastrophic results for the world and the region, as both countries possess nuclear weapons. Promoting transparency, dialogue, and diplomacy between Pakistan and India may diminish tensions and avoid further escalation.