Pakistan has long faced a complex humanitarian challenge dating back to late twentieth-century conflicts. The Afghan refugee crisis, which began during the Soviet invasion and escalated during the subsequent civil strife, has evolved into an issue that intertwines security, diplomacy, and economic stability. In recent years, Pakistan has pursued a new strategy aimed at repatriating Afghan nationals, a move that has generated concerns both domestically and internationally.
Historically, Pakistan has served as a refuge for millions of Afghans fleeing conflict. However, this longstanding hospitality policy has become strained due to the growing challenges associated with large-scale, undocumented migration. Early humanitarian responses were motivated by a shared regional ethos and the urgent need to provide shelter to those in distress. Over the decades, as the number of refugees increased, issues related to legal status and integration emerged.
Recently, the Pakistani government has expressed concerns that the continued presence of a significant number of undocumented Afghan nationals poses potential security risks, especially in light of allegations that the Afghan government is providing safe havens for terrorist elements. This concern has been heightened by reports linking certain refugee enclaves to extremist factions and groups, such as Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan.
In early 2025, Pakistan launched a phased repatriation program aimed at reducing the number of Afghan refugees within its borders. Government officials have emphasized that this initiative is not just an administrative measure but a crucial security step designed to protect the nation from potential threats. The program includes rigorous verification of documentation and strict deadlines for repatriation. For example, one phase of the program is set to conclude by the end of March 2025, with the possibility of extending the deadline to June for those who have applied for resettlement in third countries. Official reports indicate that this move is expected to significantly impact the Afghan refugee community residing in urban centres, such as Islamabad and Rawalpindi, where undocumented migration has been particularly pronounced.
Security concerns have become a central issue in discussions regarding the repatriation policy. Recent incidents have revealed potential links between certain segments of the refugee population and cross-border militant activities. Pakistani security agencies have reported cases where individuals lacking valid documentation have been involved in activities that threaten national stability. In various operations near the Afghanistan border, security forces have detained Afghan nationals suspected of being connected to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). These operations, which have occasionally resulted in casualties among suspected militants, are viewed as essential components of a broader counterterrorism strategy. From the perspective of the Pakistani government, the repatriation program is seen as a crucial measure to reduce security risks that may arise from a large, loosely regulated refugee population. Additionally, the casual attitude of Afghan Taliban officials towards the TTP has heightened these concerns, prompting Pakistani authorities to implement such stringent measures.
The implications of the repatriation policy extend beyond national security and into the socio-economic fabric of the country. Afghan refugees have significantly contributed to the local economy for many years by filling vital roles in various sectors, including agriculture, manufacturing, and services. In many urban areas, the economic contributions of the refugee community have been substantial, providing both skilled and unskilled labour that supports local industries. However, the abrupt nature of the repatriation drive has raised concerns among local business communities and civil society organizations. There is growing apprehension that the sudden departure of a large segment of the population may lead to short-term labour shortages and economic disruptions, potentially impacting local industries and the overall economic stability of host communities.
Diplomatic tensions further complicate the challenges associated with the repatriation policy. The Afghan government has strongly criticized the measures, calling the expulsions unilateral and inconsistent with established international norms regarding the treatment of refugees. Afghan authorities argue that Pakistan is not providing adequate notice or procedural safeguards, which undermines the humanitarian tradition that has long supported the region. Conversely, Pakistani officials assert that the repatriation program is a necessary step to address the complex challenges posed by the refugee situation, particularly regarding alleged safe havens for extremist elements in Afghanistan. This divergence in perspectives adds another layer of complexity to an already volatile regional relationship.
The situation is further complicated by the suspension of international refugee resettlement programs, most notably those administered by the United States. The halt in these programs has left many Afghan refugees in a precarious situation, with few legal alternatives to stay in Pakistan. International observers have raised concerns over the humanitarian impact of this policy shift, highlighting the increased vulnerability of refugees who have long relied on these resettlement mechanisms. The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees has repeatedly urged Pakistan to ensure that its repatriation efforts align with international humanitarian standards. However, for many in Pakistan, the primary concern remains national security, especially given evidence suggesting that some elements within Afghanistan are providing shelter to groups that could destabilize the region.
The Pakistani government’s approach to the refugee crisis is closely linked to broader strategic and regional security concerns. Officials believe that the ongoing presence of large numbers of undocumented Afghan refugees, some of whom may be connected to militant groups, poses a real risk to national security. This situation is worsened by the perception that the Afghan government and factions associated with the Afghan Taliban are providing safe havens for extremist elements historically involved in anti-state activities. This viewpoint is reinforced by documented instances of cross-border militant infiltration and the use of refugee networks for smuggling arms and other contraband. Therefore, the repatriation policy is viewed not just as an administrative measure but as a crucial part of Pakistan’s overall strategy to secure its borders and maintain internal stability.
Looking ahead, the prospects for Afghanistan and Pakistan in this area remain uncertain. It may create more tension with the Taliban government. Ironically, the Afghan Taliban are the least interested in the welfare of its citizens, including those repatriated to Afghanistan. On Pakistan’s part, unless there are significant changes in the regional security landscape, it is unlikely that the repatriation strategy will be reversed soon. Instead, the emphasis will likely remain on ensuring that only those refugees who are fully documented and verified can stay in the country. At the same time, there is an increasing focus on engaging in dialogue with international partners and regional stakeholders to tackle the broader security implications of the refugee situation. Pakistan should urge UNHCR to take measures for the convening of an international conference for the repatriation and rehabilitation of Afghan refugees in Afghanistan. The international community should also play its role in rehabilitating these refugees, especially those awaiting resettlement in third countries.
From a Pakistani perspective, it is crucial to recognize that the current repatriation policy is not just a domestic administrative decision but a strategic response to an evolving security threat. Allegations that the Afghan government is sheltering terrorist factions and extremist groups are taken seriously by Pakistani authorities, who argue that such actions have direct implications for regional stability. Therefore, the repatriation program is viewed as a necessary step to prevent any potential exploitation of the refugee population by elements seeking to destabilize the region. Although there is a significant humanitarian aspect to the crisis, the main focus remains on safeguarding national security and ensuring that Pakistan’s internal stability is not jeopardized.
While the economic and humanitarian impacts of the repatriation initiative are significant, the primary focus has been on national security, which has shaped the direction of the policy. As Pakistan navigates this challenging landscape, the emphasis remains on maintaining internal stability and safeguarding national interests, even amid shifting regional dynamics. The future trajectory of the refugee crisis will depend on a combination of domestic policy decisions, regional security developments, and international cooperation, with Pakistan committed to prioritising the safety and sovereignty of the nation above all else.
