A ceasefire, brokered by President Trump, has taken hold between Iran and Israel following twelve days of intense air warfare. While both nations claim victory, a preliminary US intelligence assessment reveals that the weekend airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, despite President Trump’s claim of “obliteration,” have only set back Iran’s nuclear program by a month or two at most.

The assessment, reportedly from the Defense Intelligence Agency, contradicts the White House’s assertion. While the strikes sealed entrances to some facilities, underground structures remained largely intact, and some centrifuges survived the attacks. Enriched uranium stocks were also not eliminated, according to sources familiar with the report. The White House has dismissed the assessment as “flat out wrong.”

The conflict began on June 13th with a surprise Israeli air assault on Iranian nuclear facilities and key military commanders. Iran retaliated with missile strikes on Israeli targets. The US joined the conflict with its own attacks on Iranian uranium enrichment facilities. The fighting ended after President Trump publicly reprimanded both nations for violating the ceasefire he announced.

Despite the intelligence assessment, both Israel and Iran declared victory. Prime Minister Netanyahu asserted that the attacks eliminated the threat of nuclear annihilation and a ballistic missile threat. Iranian President Pezeshkian echoed this sentiment, declaring a “great victory” and expressing a willingness to resolve differences with the US.